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События и комментарии экспертов фонда

| 23 ноября, 2014

Vladimir Putin’s popularity with the people grows.

In an interview with the TASS News Agency, President Vladimir Putin said that he has not ruled out the possibility of running in the presidential race in 2018.

“Yes, the possibility that I will be nominated as a candidate in the Presidential elections does exist” he said. “The Constitution allows for this, but it in now way means that I shall accept it. I will look at the overall context, the attitude of the people and my own feelings at the time” he said, adding that it is too early to talk about this now. “I don’t know whether or not it (a ballot – Izvestia) is feasible.”

Vladimir Putin also said that he has no intention of remaining as President for life. “This would not be right for the country, it would be harmful, and I don’t need it either” he explained.

“I do know that I have served and am serving my country faithfully, and am doing everything I can to this end. But, I repeat that to cling to something is counterproductive, harmful and not useful at all” said the President.

Experts agree that if the political, economic and social trends continue as they are, then Vladimir Putin will still be the most popular politician in 2018 and his nomination will be logical, legal and something that the majority of Russian citizens will be demanding.

Konstantin Kostin, head of the Foundation for Civil Society Development said “it would be nonsense if the most popular politician in the country did not take part in the elections. I therefore believe that we will, without doubt, see Putin among the presidential candidates.”

Dmitry Badovsy, the President of The Institute of Socio-Economic and Political Research, pointed out that, according to opinion polls, two thirds of Russian citizens do not rule out seeing Putin stand for President in the 2018 elections, while 65% envisage no other candidate.

“The policies which are maintained by Putin” he said, and the principles and values that he stands for, are completely in line with what the voters were waiting for when he decided to return to the presidency in 2012. It is therefore clear what the situation will be in 2018. The demand for Putin to lead again will not simply be maintained, it will grow.”

Political scientist Oleg Matveichev, said that Vladimir Putin would stand for President in 2018.

“I believe it is obvious to everyone that Putin must stand in the next elections because there is no other leader in the country, and the country does not want one. And he feels strong enough to see through another term.”

However, the head of the Political Expert Group, Konstantin Kalachev points out that people are naturally concerned about the question of whether or not Vladimir will run in the elections.

“Many Russians agree with the words of Vyacheslav Volodin (‘As long as there is Putin there is Russia. Without Putin there is no Russia.’) On the one hand this statement gives his supporters confidence in the future, and on the other hand it is addressed to the outside world in the sense that it means ‘don’t rely on a change of regime; you are going to have to deal with me. If you want to negotiate, negotiate with me’” said Kalachev.

However, the General Director of the Centre for Political Information, Alexey Mukhin says that intrigues surrounding whether or not Putin will stand for President still persist and this is to Putin’s advantage.

“The Head of State said that he would not of course be President for life, but at the same time he did not rule out that he may run in 2018. The intrigues surrounding the elections in 2007 will play out again. The Western community is hungering for more intrigues in 2018, however they may well just get confused again, as they did in 2007 and get lost in broad daylight.”

Mukhin also pointed out that Putin’s attitudes to the ratings on his popularity is a sensible one and demonstrates a valuable asset in any politician.

“Being rational when it comes to the ratings [as Putin put it: “the most important thing is not to be a hostage to the ratings”] is important because as soon as a politician starts becoming dependent on the ratings, his actions become inadequate and impractical. That sort of politician does not make measured and sensible decisions but departs from the rationale of the moment. Putin understand this and it is a very valuable asset for a President.”

Mukhin believes that the main message of Putin’s interview is ‘Stay calm. There’s no point in worrying. Russia is prepared for an information war and even a real war but it does not want it.’

On the whole, political scientists saw Putin’s interview as proof of his confident view of the future of the country. They believe that it is first and foremost an answer to a multitude of questions – both those which are voiced, and those which are not publicly voiced, but which are nevertheless being asked.

Konstantin Kostin says that if one looks at the political content of the interview then one can dub it ‘The Rules of Politics according to Vladimir Putin.”

“Putin holds a special place in Russian politics because he is the creator and architect of our political system” says Kostin. “The policies that Putin is laying down today will be of great importance for the political leaders both of today and those who will be in power ten, fifteen and twenty years from now both regionally and nationally. In the history of each country there are periods which see political policies that are of particular importance for the development of their own governments.”

In particular, according to experts, the Russian leader is the first one to publicly formulate such postulates as – the more a President is supported by his people, the more he is aware of his responsibilities and thus the harder he works.

“The notion of serving one’s country seems like a simple thing” says Kostin “but before Putin, such a form of leadership was not evident. Politics is more than just a profession. That is how Russians believe a politician should think. In other words it is a person who is working for them and acting in their interests. This explains why such politicians are supported by high ratings. The sanctions are perceived by Russians as an attempt to put pressure on their leader and on them personally. They are happy with Russian policies which are made in their interests and the sanctions are aimed against them.”

Mukhin agrees with Kostin. He believes that the main thesis of the interview is that ‘everything is going to plan’.

“Firstly, Vladimir Putin has demonstrated a mastery of the situation. This is what was expected of him both from his supporters and from his opponents who try to find – and if they can’t, then fabricate – weakness in the President.”

Dmitry Badovsky pointed out that the Spring of 2015 will be exactly half of the current presidential term and then, he says, it will be possible to make an assessment of the intermediate results.

“In my opinion” says Badovsky “the situation today is such that the demand for Putin to continue his political leadership and follow through with the realization of his various strategies will only increase.”