СМИ об исследованиях

| 25 августа, 2014

Elections - the Crimean Factor

Only three out of thirty regions in Russia where the Gubernatorial elections will be held this year will have an element of uncertainty with regard to who actually wins. These three regions are the Krasnoyarsk Territory, the Republic of Altai and the Astrakhan region. This is the prediction from the Foundation for Civil Society Development (FCSD) in its report on regional elections, which is published today In an interview with ‘RG’ the head of the Foundation, Konstantin Kostin said that the so called Ukrainian factor would have a serious impact on the outcome of these elections.

‘The reunification of the Crimea with Russia, the situation in the south-east of Ukraine and the associated pressure on and unsubstantiated criticism of Russia have all served to create a sense of solidarity among Russians in their support of President Putin’ said Kostin.

Therefore, he added, those candidates who the President has either appointed as acting head of the region or who he has in some way or another indicated he supports in the elections, will be pretty certain of winning.

The FCSD report believes that the gubernatorial elections will have a ‘referendum’ (in other words a for or against vote for a single candidate) feel to them in 25 regions of the country where it is already certain who is going to win the elections (FCSD predict that the winners will receive 60% and in some places 70% of the vote) and the real fight will be for second place. However, truly competitive elections where the outcome is uncertain and there will be chances for success in the second round, will take place in the Altai Republic, Yakutia and the Astrakhan region because it is here that the opposition candidates are in a really strong position. In the Altai Republic for example, this will be Vladimir Petrov, the former chairman of the regional government who was nominated as a candidate by the ‘People’s Power’ Party. In Yakutia it is Ernst Berezkin, ex-Finance Minister and former First Vice-President of Finance and Economics for the ALROSA diamond corporation who was nominated as a candidate by the ‘People’s Platform’ Party. In the Astrakhan region it is Oleg Shein who was nominated by the ‘Fair Russia’ Party who stands out as a strong opposition candidate He has been elected as a deputy of the regional parliament four times and as a deputy to the State Duma three times.

‘It is here that we might be looking at a second round in the elections’ says Kostin. ‘However we foresee that nevertheless, the existing heads of the regions will still end up winning even though it may only be in a second round. However their results will be only slightly higher than the 50% mark. There are two more regions where there will also be some elements of uncertainty in the outcome and these are Krasnoyarsk and Murmansk Regions where the campaign will be balanced between referendum and competitive scenarios.’

In the rest of the regions, people will simply vote for or against the ‘planned victor’ who will be known in advance. At the same time in two regions - Lipetsk and Nizhny Novgorod - the acting heads of the regions have, according to the FCSD, been tied into referendum scenarios.

While admitting that the majority of Gubernatorial electoral campaigns are a foregone conclusion, the FCSD claims that there is an increased level of competitiveness in these elections when compared to previous elections. These elections for example have 136 candidates from 24 parties - twice as many parties as last year.

‘There is no contradiction here’ said Konstantin Kostin. ‘In the United States for example, only 20% of the areas voting in Congressional elections see any real race going on. The rest have the same referendum situation as in Russian regions. Competitiveness in elections all depends on whether or not there are a number of serious candidates taking part. When this happens then we have all the prerequisites for competition.’

‘In a number of regions there is a good chance that the second place will be taken by candidates from new parties. This is particularly true of Yakutia, Kranoyarsk and Altai.’

As in the past, the candidates and parties sometimes come to a coalition agreement. This also does away with excessive competition. In this campaign the Primorsky, Orenburg, Kirov and Orlov regions have all come to a coalition agreement. In the last two regions ‘United Russia’ decided not to nominate candidates but instead supported the independent candidate Nikita Belikh and the Communist Vadim Potomsky. As a result of this agreement the governors standing for elections then nominated representatives of the ruling party to the Federation Council.

The Foundation for Civil Society Development does not consider the so-called municipal filter an insurmountable obstacle for the opposition: some candidates have managed to overcome the perceived barrier either independently or with support from ‘United Russia’. Similarly, the FCSD believes that it is not unusual that 136 out of 207 candidates for the Governors’ office were not able to make it past the municipal filter. ‘We expect to see strong candidates in elections - it ensures a high quality in the race’ says Kostin. ‘That is why there are certain requirements. If you can’t play football - don’t try out for the Premier League.’