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События и комментарии экспертов фонда

| 14 октября, 2012

Первые выборы в России как тест для Путина после его возвращения в Кремль

На первых за последние восемь лет выборах губернаторов в России, а также приблизительно в 5,000 других выборах разного уровня кандидаты, поддержанные правящей партией "Единая Россия", по оценкам Московского центра Карнеги, могут потерпеть неудачу лишь на 10 мэрских и местных выборах в законодательные органы. Но во всех пяти губернаторских гонках с двузначным перевесом победят кандидаты правящей партии, - таков прогноз Фонда развития гражданского общества .

“Эти выборы, главным образом, идут спокойно и предсказуемо, и народу нравится стабильность”, - заявил в интервью 12 октября Константин Костин, глава Фонда Развития Гражданского Общества и Кремлевский советник. - Люди хотят, чтобы изменения сделали жизнь лучше, но стабильность - их основноe желание”.

Как показал отчет фонда Костина, «упущенный шанс» правящей партии на выборах в законодательные органы во Владивостоке, Твери и Ярославле в декабре прошлого года, лишивший ее прямого большинства, в этом году должен быть исправлен.

Кремль просевал кандидатов на выборах губернаторов при помощи так называемого муниципального фильтрах, в то время как главы по крайней мере 20 из 83 областей России были заменены или вновь назначены прежде, чем законодательные изменения вступили в силу. “Возможно, мы действовали слишком резко с фильтрами, но, по моему мнению, фильтры необходимы, - сказал Сергей Иванов, начальник штаба Путина. - Я не могу понять, как мы можем позволить 120 - 150 кандидатам конкурировать на выборах губернатора”.

Система отбора кандидатов включает требование собрать подписи 10 процентов муниципальных законодателей в регионе. Большинством региональных парламентов управляет «Единая Россия» и они решают индивидуально позволить или нет независимым кандидатам принять участие в выборах. Правила выдвижения кандидатов могут быть смягчены после этих выборов, сказал Костин.

Материал полностью

Russia Votes in Putin’s First Election Test Since Kremlin Return

In Russia’s first gubernatorial elections in eight years and about 5,000 other polls, contenders backed by the ruling United Russia party may suffer setbacks in at least 10 mayoral and local legislative elections, the Carnegie Moscow Center projects. Governing-party candidates are leading by double-digit margins in all five gubernatorial races, according to the Civil Society Development Fund. Putin, who handed the chairmanship of the United Russia party to Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev a year ago, is struggling to reverse a slump in approval ratings that are near the lowest level since mass protests broke out in December. A crackdown has since ensued, including prosecution of opposition activists and leaders, increased fines for unsanctioned rallies and tightened controls over the Internet. “These elections are mainly going calmly and predictably and people like stability,” Konstantin Kostin head of the Civil Society Development Fund and a Kremlin adviser, said in an Oct. 12 interview. “People want changes to make life better, but stability is their main motive.” The unrest is pushing Putin’s allies into a balancing act where a heavy-handed show of strength risks sparking new protests and rallying the opposition. Putin, who began his third presidential term in May, abolished direct elections of governors in 2004 and agreed to restore them last year after tens of thousands took to the streets to protest voting fraud. ‘Lost Chance’ The ruling party’s edge in legislative elections in Vladivostok, Tver and Yaroslavl may leave it short of an outright majority, the report by Kostin’s fund showed. “The Kremlin lost a chance to show a willingness to allow for soft democratization,” said Grigory Melkonyants, head of Golos, a vote-monitoring watchdog. “We see almost as many violations and administrative pressure during the election campaign as before.” The Kremlin winnowed the contenders in gubernatorial elections by using a so-called municipal filter to screen candidates, while the heads of at least 20 of Russia’s 83 regions were replaced or reappointed before legislative changes went into effect. “Maybe we acted too harshly with the filters but in my opinion filters are needed,” said Sergei Ivanov, Putin’s chief of staff. “I can’t quite understand how we can allow 120 to 150 candidates to compete in gubernatorial elections.” Candidate Screening The system of screening candidates includes a requirement to collect the signatures of as many as 10 percent of municipal lawmakers in the region. Most regional parliaments are controlled by United Russia and will decide individually whether independent candidates are allowed to run. The screening rules may be softened after these elections, Kostin said. Speaking in an Oct. 7 television interview that marked his 60th birthday, Putin chided the opposition for their “boorish behavior” and said he held out “hope serious people will appear someday” among his opponents. The president cited an increase in the wellbeing of Russians, including a more than tenfold increase in average wages since 2000, among the greatest accomplishments of his tenure. Even so, the world’s biggest energy exporter is facing slowing growth after inflation accelerated to a 10-month high in September and consumer confidence fell in the third quarter for the first time since January-March 2011. Growth Forecast The World Bank on Oct. 8 cut its forecasts for Russia’s economic expansion this year and next, citing the country’s weak harvest, the global economic turmoil and faster price growth eroding purchasing power. Gross domestic product will grow 3.5 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2013, the Washington-based lender said. The forecast for this year was cut 0.4 percentage points from a June estimate, while next year’s projection was lowered half a percentage point. GDP rose 4 percent from a year earlier in the second quarter. Support for Putin is at 44 percent, after bottoming out at 41 percent last month, the Moscow-based Public Opinion Foundation, or FOM, said in an Oct. 11 report. The Russian leader won the March presidential election with 64 percent of the vote. FOM polled 3,000 Russians Oct. 6-7. No margin of error was given. Opposition Support More Russians are leaning toward joining rallies against possible voter fraud, with 17 percent saying in September they would back local demonstrations to protest falsifications, up from 13 percent a month earlier and 15 percent last December, according to an Oct. 8 survey by the independent Levada Center. About 63 percent of respondents in six of the country’s biggest cities have a very bad, bad or average impression of their mayors and governors, according to another poll published by Levada on Oct. 5. Even so, incumbent governors will probably “win easily” in the regions of Amursk, Belgorod and Novgorod and overcome “some difficulties” to finish first in Bryansk and Ryazan, said Nikolay Petrov, a scholar at the Carnegie Moscow Center. “The Kremlin and regional authorities in many cases still enjoy almost complete control over the election process, but they are afraid to provoke mass protests,” Petrov said. “The Kremlin closely screened the regions and decided to permit elections only where no surprises were expected.” ‘Split Elites’ Controversies have engulfed two of the regional elections. Russia’s Supreme Court yesterday reinstated Bryansk’s incumbent governor, Nikolai Denin, after a local court barred him from running because of falsified signatures. In the Ryazan region, the main challenger for the governor’s office dropped out of the race and accepted an offer to become a senator. “A split in the elites is growing,” said Vladimir Mekhedov, a political scientist at Bryansk State University. “It may not be that distinct yet, but the discord is making itself felt, it’s hard to constrain it.” “There is a tectonic shift. The deal -- you give me position and I give you my loyalty -- is not working anymore,” said Olga Kryshtanovskaya, a sociologist in Moscow, adding that fallout from the vote may prompt further escalation of political tensions. “And this more likely to cause a revolution rather than when people went out to a rally and come back home” To contact the reporter on this story: Ilya Arkhipov in Moscow at iarkhipov@bloomberg.net To contact the editor responsible for this story: Balazs Penz at bpenz@bloomberg.net