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СМИ об исследованиях

| 27 января, 2014

What Chance for the Governors

The Foundation for Civil Society Development (FCSD) which has close ties to the Kremlin has just released the first evaluation (‘rating’) of the efficiency of governors. The Foundation makes it clear that people wishing to find out whether the current head of their region is likely to be re-elected as his term draws to an end, can now do so by looking at the results of the ratings.

The main feature of these ratings is its great reliance on the mass sociological research of over 60,000 people. According to the head of the FCSD Konstantin Kostin, 75% of the information in the rating was sourced from public opinion polls carried out by the Foundation for Public Opinion and other various media studies. Additional information on economic factors in the regions was sourced from data provided by the Federal State Statistics Service and also by listening to the opinions of respected analysts. “Public opinion was the most important factor in determining the evaluation of the governors, however some of the participants may have ‘slipped’ somewhat in the ratings because of the negative opinions of the experts”.

Before the end of this year ten ‘editions’ of the ratings will be released (the last edition will summarize the year’s results) and Konstantin Kostin is certain that the results will be so ‘good and honest’ that the Kremlin will make use of them. Vitalii Ivanov, head of the Centre for Regional Studies makes it quite clear that the research will help them to find out what likelihood each governor has of being re-elected. Kostin, however, suggests that they should be cautious about predicting outcomes, although he believes that poor ratings are definitely a bad sign for the governors.

At the bottom end of the ratings are four governors whose mandate expired this year. These are Alexander Volkov (Udmutria), Alexander Kozlov (Orlov region), Igor Fyodorov (Nenetsk Autonomous Okrug) and Oleg Bogomolov (Kurgan region). They are included within the ‘death group’, a group of twelve governors with the lowest efficacy ratings, i.e. less than 50 points out of 100. The ‘death group’ also includes Lev Kuznetsov (Krasnoyarsk Federal Subject) Alexander Khudilainen (Karelia) who’s ratings are dwindling. Commenting on the results, Konstantin Kostin notes that it is worth mentioning the success of opposition leaders in the Petrozavodsk mayoral elections and Krasnoyarsk City Council elections: “The less able that those in power are, the more chance the opposition has of winning over the public. Many problems became evident following the mayoral elections in Krasnoyarsk but though alarm bells began ringing nothing was done to solve them.

There are 23 governors in the most successful groups – all of whom scored over 75 points. The most effective governor was Dmitriy Kobylkin, head of the Yamalo-Nenetsk Autonomous District, who was only 5 points away from the maximum 100. Political scientists have explained that his success is due to the region’s excellent economic performance and successful infrastructure projects. Other governors who are at the top of the rating include Anatolii Artamonov (Kaluga Region), Rustam Minnikhanov (Tatarstan), Yevgenii Savchenko (Belgorod Region) and Sergei Sobyanin (Moscow). “The success of Kobylkin can be explained by a resource rich region” says Konstantin Kalachev, the head of “Political Expert Group”, “but it is the personalities of Artamonov and Savchenko, which won them the vote and counterbalanced bad starting conditions.