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СМИ об исследованиях

| 13 ноября, 2013

Print media will die while other media sources will move online: forecast for newspapers, TV and radio in 2020

Experts from the Foundation for Civil Society Development, headed by Konstantin Kostin, have prepared a forecast for the future development of traditional media sources up to the year 2020. According to the report, which was presented on the 13^th November in Moscow, the future trends are not at all reassuring – particularly when it comes to print media. The situation in 2020 for printed media publications which are on the market today is a very negative one with the prospect of the almost complete disappearance of this particular segment of the media in its paper-form between 2020 and 2030 say the experts. Those who survive will face new rules of the game: the largest Russian newspapers will be forced to move into free distribution and sponsored content (the so called ‘jeans’ content where feature articles are sponsored by advertisers) will play a far greater role. Those newspapers who go out of print and move online will set up a so called pay-wall where subscribers will have to pay to access content.

Stanislav Apetjan, an expert from the Foundation for Civil Society Development talked about the main findings of the report ‘Traditional media in 2020: Trends and Forecasts’ in an interview with the news agency IA REGNUM.

IA REGNUM: The report describes how the forecast with regard to TV is stable while the forecast for radio is fairly stable as it will adapt and also have a larger online presence. What sort of changes will we see for these two media sources? Can they count on an increase in viewers and listeners?

S.A. There will definitely be some increase – especially when it comes to radio – and this will be mainly down to the fact that more people will own cars and listen to their car radios. The rise in demand for cars among the population will continue to grow and this will in turn lead to an increase in people listening to car radios – the most accessible media source when driving.

As for television – it is available to 100% of the population today so an increase is impossible. But the level of viewing, ie the number of hours people spend watching TV, will in our opinion be pretty stable and remain at approximately 4 hours a day on average. Of course this will vary according to the age group of viewers. Elderly people watch television more and younger people watch it less.

Nevertheless, we will see certain changes within TV and radio broadcasting and the main drive for these changes will without a doubt be the internet. The number of online radio stations will continually grow, in other words people will be listening to the radio via internet channels rather than through traditional radio stations. Today we are already noticing a gradual decrease in the number of people listening to radio sets at home, as more and more people use the internet to source radio stations, whether that is listening to music on social media sites or through music portals. However ‘talk’ radio stations will maintain much the same levels of popularity as they have a competitive advantage over music stations by dint of their unique content.

As for television, the main trend here will be in increased diversification, both with regard to sources of broadcasted content and with regard to what sort of devices people will use to watch TV. Instead of using TV sets people will be using alternative devices, whether that be tablets, smart-phones or computers. On the other hand, one might say that in the next few years we will see a growth in the services of alternative distribution of TV content - in other words various platforms, which will take television content and sell it on to audiences. TV channels in the conventional sense of the word will no longer have a monopoly over the distribution of TV programmes.

IA REGNUM. The forecast with regard to the plight of printed media in 2020 is grim, in fact you talk of the almost total disappearance of printed news matter. Which sort of publications will be able to stay afloat?

S.A. The disappearance of paper versions of the media does not involve the disappearance of those publications altogether. We all know that in the future more and more publications will move online and stop printing paper versions, but some publications will not need to do this if they turn to free distribution. Some of our most popular newspapers, for example Komsomolskaya Pravda, are already considering free distribution. It goes without saying that free newspapers will be the last to disappear.

IA REGNUM But will the paywall system survive in Russia? Why would Russians pay to read content online?

S.A. Paywalls will exist in one form or another in Russia in the future, however, in my view they will not be so popular here as they are in Western European countries and the USA. Only publications which have a stable, and more importantly, a loyal readership will be able to introduce paywalls. This will be, for the most part, business publications.

The only working example of a paywall in Russia today is the newspaper ‘Vedomosti’ because the format suits paywall. However paywall is completely unsuitable for tabloid publications like ‘Moskovskii Komsomolyets’ and ‘Komsomolskaya Pravda’ because similar content can be found for free elsewhere. The paywall model will exist in one form or another, however it will not determine the overall structure of the market.

IA REGNUM The report predicts the free distribution of printed publications while increasing circulation. In your estimation, how many printed broadsheets will be able to survive in this way and remain in the market? And what percentage will go under?

S.A. The majority of publications will go under because most of them are second and third tier newspapers and will not survive the competition. But major publications will survive either through free distribution, adopting a paywall or by shutting down their print versions and producing online content paid for through advertising or sponsored content.

I wouldn’t like to give you an exact figure, but I will say that the market leaders will be in the minority. Those newspaper which are not cost-effective or which do not have a sound, loyal audience will go under. Some of them are already closing down – a process which we have seen continuing over the past few years. A striking example is the newspaper ‘Gazeta’ which stopped producing a printed version and went online, only to then close down online as well. Of course this newspaper did not occupy a leading position in the market and so its disappearance went virtually unnoticed.

IA REGNUM Sponsored content in printed media, especially publications with free distribution, will play an increasing role in bringing in income and this is a global trend. However, what will happen to State run media sources?

S.A. State run media will not really be affected by the market because they rely entirely on State funds. So it’s rather difficult to forecast that situation. I would suggest that ‘Rossiiski Gazyeta’ for example will continue to be published in print version because it has State funding. The same goes for regional governmental publications. Each region has a newspaper which fulfils a social function amongst other things. These publications I believe will be the last to go under.

IA REGNUM There is no mention in the report of forecasts for online media. What sort of transformation do you envisage in this area?

S.A. Yes, we have not analysed online media in this report. Naturally it will also undergo some changes and some of these changed will be similar to those occurring in printed media. For example business related online media may also move to a partial paywall model. Overall however, I don’t think it will see any major changes. It will grow with the market alongside changing technology and the growth of the online audience.