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| 15 мая, 2013

Russia’s Strength is Being Tested: Putin in the International Arena

The first year of Vladimir Putin’s third Presidential term is all as it should be: public opinion polls show that the President has the support of the majority of the population. Opposition in the form of street rallies never really took a hold and disappeared with the fading battle cry of ‘we are against everything.’

Everyone is discussing how best to execute the Presidential decrees passed this month. This last year has turned out to be very eventful for Russia, both at home and at an international level. Andrei Kochetkov, head of the Department of Political Studies in the Foundation for Civil Society Development was interviewed by REGNUM on foreign policy at the beginning of Putin’s third term with regard to the U.S, Syria, Ukraine and Central Asia.

USA

In the first year of this term of his presidency, Putin commented that we now find ourselves in a delicate balancing act with regards to the USA. It is widely believed that the USA and Russia are on the verge of a new ‘Cold War’ but this is definitely not the case – we are simply seeing a diplomatic negotiation of national interests. When Putin was re-elected he set about building up a system to defend Russia’s national interests in our mutual relations with the USA. Washington reacted quite badly to this - while at the same time recognising the validity of Russia’s position.

At present, we can see, as an outcome of the foreign policies of this first year, a situation that was highlighted during John Kerry’s visit to Moscow. In my opinion, the Americans have come to terms with the fact that Putin is one of the key figures in the international arena and they therefore have to respect Russia and this includes important issues surrounding the situation in Iran and North Korea. It is therefore not surprising that Barack Obama is now interested in building a harmonious partnership with Russia despite the many fundamental differences between the two countries.

I do not believe the relationship between Russia and the USA will deteriorate. In fact relations are gradually returning to their former constructive partnership, despite the fact that the Americans will no doubt try to test Russia’s strength. However, judging by the way Russia reacted to the attempt by CIA agents to recruit officers from the Russian Special Services, one can only conclude that Putin will be very tough when it comes to letting the Americans know that we will not tolerate any infringement of our national interests.

SYRIA

Syria has been without doubt the Soviet Union’s and then Russia’s most loyal and consistent key ally in the Middle East. In a sense, Syria is the most important and in some ways the last bastion of Russian influence in the region. Therefore it stands to reason that Russia will not abandon Syria: it will do everything to make sure that the Libyan scenario will not be repeated here. This does not mean it necessarily supports Bashar al-Assad specifically, but simply that Russia wants to prevent the chaos, looting and violence which are possible consequences of the fall of the present regime.

In this respect, Russia is prepared to take a tough stance in confronting the West, although such a confrontation will probably not happen because the West understands that it cannot simply bypass Russia in resolving the Syrian issue by force. The only way forward here is through negotiations. Russia should be one of the key players in organising these negotiations, promoting them and acting as a mediator. The Americans would like Russia to try and put some sort of pressure on Assad to go (similar to the situation in Serbia) or somehow weaken his position but I believe this will not happen. Putin will be guided by the interests of our country and not by those countries which the Americans try to foist on him.

UKRAINE

Ukraine is our brother country and I do not believe that policy here will change, but there will definitely be a clear line drawn between historical, cultural ties and the present day economic situation. These are two different areas and they should not be confused. This is what dictates the pragmatism of Russia’s policy towards Ukraine.

Much is talked about the so called ‘gas war’ but I think it is not really right to talk about a war between Russia and Ukraine. We are simply talking here about fairly tough bargaining negotiations which of mutual economic interest to the two countries. This is usual practice in business and international relations and it would be a mistake to presume that it points to the presence of some sort of systemic contradictions between Russia and Ukraine.

As for the other important issue of the Russian Black Sea Fleet based in Sebastapol, Russia is certainly interested in keeping it there. This is primarily a political issue but it also has economic nuances. I believe that in the end it will be resolved in our favour.

CENTRAL ASIA

Countries in Central Asia now find themselves supported by various governments, primarily the United States, China and Russia. Because of this they are able to do a certain amount of manoeuvring and this gives rise to some difficulties in negotiations.

One should also remember that middle-eastern leaders have a certain national tendency not to take immediate decisions. They carefully weigh all the pros and cons and then deliberate, sometimes resorting to a few psychological tricks. This is on the whole normal as it fits within the framework of their cultural traditions and so one should not take this sort of thing as an affront and cause for confrontation.

Kazakhstan is a key partner for Russia in Central Asia and we have no serious issues here. Tadzhikistan represents a very important partner for Russia in Central Asia - firstly because Russian troops are deployed in this country and secondly because there is significant migration from Tadzhikistan into Russia. I believe that in the future, relations between Russia and Tadzhikistan will depend on their mutual interest because the Russian presence there is one of the key factors in the political stability of Tadzhikistan. The same goes for Kyrgystan.

I therefore believe it is unlikely that any of these countries would decide on open confrontation with Russia. The problems we are seeing now are of a temporary character and Russian diplomacy will do everything possible to ensure that these problems are overcome because of the mutual interests involved.