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| 15 мая, 2013 | | | Читать на сайте издания |
Research into Putin’s majority by the Foundation for Civil Society Development
'Kommersant Daily' publication
By Irina Nagornikh
Political and social analysts are busy marking the first anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s presidency. On May 15th, the Foundation for Civil Society Development published its own survey, in which 46.8% of respondents said that they would vote for Putin again. According to the Foundation’s experts, this is Putin’s ‘core constituency’ whose structure will be analysed in greater detail. Some of those who voted for him in the last election will not do so again at the end of his term, but research shows that other voters are ready to replace them.
At round-table discussions on May the 15th, the Foundation will present its research under the title ‘President Putin’s Year: results and prospects’. Kommersant reports that the Foundation, led by former Head of Internal Affairs, Konstantin Kostin, will for the first time present a sociological survey. The survey was contracted out to sociological centres across the
The Foundation wants to establish the size of Putin’s stable majority, and then examine its structure further: the voters’ demographic, their financial situation, and their professions. It will then use that information to paint a picture of the typical Putin supporter.
According to the survey, if there were an election next Sunday, 46.8% of respondents would vote for Putin. A previous Foundation survey about social opinion (timed to coincide with the first anniversary of Putin’s inauguration as President on the 7th of May) produced an almost identical result – 46%.
When asked who would vote again for Putin at the end of his term of office, 49% said ‘yes’ or ‘probably yes’, while 37% said they would not vote for him again. It is important to recall that in the election itself, Putin got 63.6% of the votes, which works out at four million fewer votes than in 2004.
14.4% of respondents who voted for Putin in the last election did not answer ‘yes, definitely’ to the question: ‘If the Presidential election were held next year, would you in principle consider the possibility of voting for Putin?’
If the elections were held next Sunday, then only 79.9% of those who voted for him on March 4, 2012 would again give him their vote.
The 20% decrease in Putin’s potential votes today could, however, be recouped at the expense of his opponents in the last elections. The survey found least support for Putin amongst those who voted for Gennady Zyuganov in the last election (only 4% answered ‘definitely yes’ to the possibility of voting for Putin, 13.9% said ‘possibly’) and Sergei Mironov (5.7% and 10% respectively).
There was a slight rise in support for Putin amongst voters for Vladimir Zhrinovsky (5.9% and 16.9%) and Mikhail Prokhorov (5.5% and 19.3%). Perhaps surprisingly, there was a fairly large number of potential supporters for the President amongst those who had not voted at all in the last elections (9.4% and 27.9%).
‘We should bear in mind that at election time, Putin voters are highly motivated,’ suggests Foundation head Konstantin Kostin, ‘so we can make the assumption that the result in 2012 is 100% of his supporters. 48% of support in the mid-election period could easily become 60% on Election Day.‘
‘I was somewhat taken aback to see how much Putin’s electoral base could be broadened at the expense of rival candidates,’ adds Kostin. ‘And precisely that group of people who tactically voted for Putin last time and do not plan to again, can perhaps be compensated by these defecting voters.’
It is interesting to look at another survey by analysts from the Levad Centre. They released their results to coincide with the first anniversary of President Putin’s third term in office. They concluded that 55% of respondents want
